| 歌曲 | Lesson 14 The Butterfly Effect |
| 歌手 | 英语听力 |
| 专辑 | 新概念英语(第四册) |
| [00:01.48] | Lesson 14 |
| [00:03.37] | The Butterfly Effect |
| [00:12.92] | Why do small errors make it impossible to predict the weather system with a high degree of accuracy? |
| [00:23.11] | Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather forecasts are speculative, |
| [00:29.38] | and beyond six or seven they are worthless. |
| [00:33.23] | The Butterfly Effect is the reason. |
| [00:36.14] | For small pieces of weather -- |
| [00:38.31] | -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean thunderstorms and blizzards -- |
| [00:44.49] | any prediction deteriorates rapidly. |
| [00:47.67] | Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading upward through a chain of turbulent features, |
| [00:54.17] | from dust devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only satellites can see. |
| [01:02.68] | The modern weather models work with a grid of points of the order of sixty miles apart, |
| [01:08.82] | and even so, some starting data has to be guessed, |
| [01:13.27] | since ground stations and satellites cannot see everywhere. |
| [01:18.28] | But suppose the earth could be covered with sensors spaced one foot apart, |
| [01:23.92] | rising at one-foot intervals all the way to the top of the atmosphere. |
| [01:29.24] | Suppose every sensor gives perfectly accurate readings of temperature, |
| [01:34.60] | pressure, humidity, and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. |
| [01:41.09] | Precisely at noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and calculates what will happen at each point |
| [01:48.75] | at 12.01, then 12.02, then 12.03... |
| [01:56.86] | The computer will still be unable to predict whether Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one month away. |
| [02:06.64] | At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide fluctuations that the computer will not know about, |
| [02:13.59] | tiny deviations from the average. |
| [02:16.66] | By 12.01, those fluctuations will already have created small errors one foot away. |
| [02:24.03] | Soon the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so on up to the size of the globe. |
| [00:01.48] | dì 14 jié |
| [00:03.37] | hú dié xiào yìng |
| [00:12.92] | wèi shí me xiǎo wù chā shǐ de rén men bù kě néng gāo zhǔn què dù dì yù cè tiān qì xì tǒng? |
| [00:23.11] | shì jiè shang zuì hǎo de liǎng sān tiān yǐ shàng de tiān qì yù bào jù yǒu hěn qiáng de cāi cè xìng |
| [00:29.38] | rú guǒ chāo guò liù qī tiān, tiān qì yù bào jiù méi yǒu le rèn hé jià zhí |
| [00:33.23] | yuán yīn shì hú dié xiào yìng |
| [00:36.14] | duì yú xiǎo piàn de è liè tiān qì |
| [00:38.31] | duì yí gè quán qiú xìng de qì xiàng yù bào yuán lái shuō," xiǎo" kě yǐ yì wèi zhe léi bào yǔ hé bào fēng xuě |
| [00:44.49] | rèn hé yù cè de zhì liàng huì hěn kuài xià jiàng |
| [00:47.67] | cuò wù hé bù kě kào xìng shàng shēng, jiē zhǒng ér lái de shì yī xì liè tuān liú de zhēng zhuàng |
| [00:54.17] | cóng xiǎo chén bào hé bào fēng fā zhǎn dào zhǐ yǒu wèi xīng shàng kě yǐ kàn dào de xí juǎn zhěng kuài dà lù de xuán wō |
| [01:02.68] | xiàn dài qì xiàng mó xíng yǐ yí gè zuò biāo tú lái xiǎn shì, tú zhōng měi gè diǎn dà yuē shì jiàn gé 60 yīng lǐ |
| [01:08.82] | jì shǐ shì zhè yàng, yǒu xiē kāi shǐ shí de zī liào yě bù dé bù yī kào tuī cè |
| [01:13.27] | yīn wèi dì miàn gōng zuò zhàn hé wèi xīng bù kě néng kàn dào dì qiú shàng de měi yí gè dì fāng |
| [01:18.28] | jiǎ shè dì qiú shàng kě yǐ bù mǎn chuán gǎn qì, měi gè xiāng gé 1 yīng chǐ |
| [01:23.92] | àn 1 yīng chǐ de jiàn gé cóng dì miàn yī zhí pái liè dào dà qì céng de dǐng duān |
| [01:29.24] | zài jiǎ dìng měi gè chuán gǎn qì dōu jí jí duān zhǔn què dì dú chū le wēn dù |
| [01:34.60] | qì yā wēn dù hé qì xiàng xué jiā xū yào de rèn hé qí tā shù jù |
| [01:41.09] | zài zhèng wǔ shí fēn, yí gè gōng néng jù dà de jì suàn jī sōu jí le suǒ yǒu de zī liào, bìng suàn chū zài měi yí gè diǎn shàng shí kě néng chū xiàn de qíng kuàng |
| [01:48.75] | zài 12. 01, rán hòu 12. 02, rán hòu 12. 03 |
| [01:56.86] | jì suàn jī wú fǎ tuī duàn chū 1 gè yuè yǐ hòu de mǒu yì tiān, xīn zé xī zhōu de pǔ lín sī dùn jiū jìng shì qíng tiān hái shì yǔ tiān |
| [02:06.64] | zhèng wǔ shí fēn, chuán gǎn qì zhī jiān de jù lí huì yǎn gài jì suàn jī wú fǎ zhī dào de bō dòng |
| [02:13.59] | rèn hé piān píng jūn zhí de biàn huà |
| [02:16.66] | dào 12: 01 shí, nèi xiē bō dòng jiù yǐ jīng huì zài 1 yīng chǐ yuǎn de dì fāng zào chéng piān chā |
| [02:24.03] | hěn kuài zhè zhǒng piān chā huì zēng jiā dào chǐ 10 yīng de fàn wéi, rú cǐ děng děng, yī zhí dào quán qiú de fàn wéi |